Proven playbook: it has been done, here is how (Confidential)

What has already been done

Nine platforms. Same playbook. Real numbers.

Apex Service Partners Tampa, FL

Started

2019: Best Home Services (Naples) plus Frank Gay Services (Orlando) S45
Sponsor: Alpine Investors S45

Grew to

75 prominent brands (107 tracked), 46 states, 13,000+ staff S47 S125
$3B+ revenue, about $500M EBITDA S47 S49

How fast

7 years to $500M EBITDA
Brands about 5, 15, 30, 55, 85, 107 in years 1 to 6 S125
About 60 add ons in 2025 S51

Money raised

$3.4B continuation vehicle plus $450M from Alpine Fund IX (Oct 2023) S46
Apollo minority, about $2B (May 2026) S47 S48
Debt: $1B notes, $2B term loan, $300M delayed draw, $300M revolver (Oct 2026) S127

What they changed

Kept every local brand
Talent engine: 300+ Apex trained leaders; 65% of senior leaders are military veterans S47
Multi trade: HVAC plus plumbing plus electrical
Bought small platforms too (Frontier, 3 brands, 2024) S126

What got better

8,000+ technicians supported; 300+ Apex trained operating leaders S47
Staff 8,000+ (2023) to 13,000+ (2026) S46 S47
Margin about 16.7% (calculated: $500M / $3B)

Sold or valued at

About $10B EV, about 20x (Apollo minority, 2026) S48 S49

Guild Garage Group Orlando, FL (garage doors)

Started

2024: 3 former L Catterton associates, no platform company S101 S103
Sponsor: none at start; founders raised their own equity S101

Grew to

28 brands, 500+ technicians, 30 states S98
$300M+ revenue, close to $50M EBITDA S103

How fast

14 deals in first 9 months; $30M EBITDA run rate in year 1 (founder claim) S101
Close to 30 deals, $50M EBITDA in about 2 years S103

Money raised

About $35M equity, then $5M more ($40M total) S101
$85M private credit facility S101

What they changed

Buys 70% to 80%; owner rolls 20% to 30% for a "second bite" S101
Mid single digit entry multiple S101
Same back office everywhere: ServiceTitan, Sage, ADP; 20 person exec team S101
700 to 800 handwritten letters, 10% to 15% response S101
Tuck ins for as little as $50K that run at about 20% margin S101

What got better

Organic growth about 14% a year (founder claim) S101
Hit $30M EBITDA in year 1 vs a $20M five year goal S101
Margin about 16.7% (calculated: $50M / $300M)

Sold or valued at

Oak Hill, over $800M (Mar 2026); about 16x (calculated: $800M / $50M) S98 S103

Redwood Services Memphis, TN

Started

2020; first partners 2021: Rite Way (Tucson), John C. Flood (DC metro) S107 S111
Sponsor: Union Main Group (holding company) S54 S107

Grew to

11 partners, $250M (2023) S108
16 partners, $400M+ (2024) S109
19 partners, $500M+, 2,500+ staff (2025) S54
24 partners, EBITDA over $100M (2026) S110

How fast

About 5 years to about $65M EBITDA S55
About 6 years to over $100M (with Sierra) S110
About 4 partners a year; average partner about $26M revenue (calculated: $500M / 19)

Money raised

Union Main founding capital: not disclosed
Altas majority, about $1.1B (May 2025) S54 S55
Sierra Platform buy, about $220M (May 2026) S110

What they changed

Owners keep uncapped upside (partnership structure) S109
No rebrand, no playbook dump S109
Partner Support Center: coaches, finance, accounting, marketing, HR S108
Technician universities S108
Bought a 5 company platform with $100M+ revenue S56

What got better

Revenue $250M to $500M+ in about 2 years S108 S54
Staff 1,300 to 2,500+ S108 S54
Sierra added 19,000 memberships S56
Margin about 13% (calculated: $65M / $500M)

Sold or valued at

About $1.1B, about 17x on about $65M (2025) S55

Sila Services King of Prussia, PA

Started

2021: Sila Heating & Air (founded 1989), already multi brand S112
Sponsor: Morgan Stanley Capital Partners S112

Grew to

30+ brands by Nov 2024 S112
Just under $100M EBITDA S20

How fast

About 3.5 years from MSCP entry to just under $100M EBITDA
Deals 3, 6, 8, 11 a year (2021 to 2024) S114

Money raised

MSCP entry 2021: not disclosed
Goldman Sachs Alternatives majority, Nov 2024 (terms not disclosed) S112

What they changed

Credited "consistently strong organic growth" S112
Deal pace stepped up every year S114

What got better

Brands to 30+ (now 40+ on its site)
Organic growth: not disclosed as a number

Sold or valued at

About $1.7B, about 17x (about 20x before pending deals) S20
Reuters: about $1.5B S52

Champions Group Orange County, CA

Started

Jan 2021: Service Champions with 6 trade names, 850+ technicians S104
Sponsor: Odyssey Investment Partners S104

Grew to

19 brands, 2,400 staff, 7 states (2023) S105
23 brands, 1,800 field technicians, 150,000 members S106 S58
About $140M annualized EBITDA S58

How fast

About 5 years to about $140M EBITDA S58
About 2 deals a year after 2021 (Weak tracker)

Money raised

Odyssey entry: not disclosed
Blackstone (BXPE) buyout, Feb 2026 (terms not disclosed) S106

What they changed

Started with a scaled anchor: 850+ technicians on day one S104
5 add ons in its first year (Weak tracker)
Membership base as the growth engine: 150,000 active members S106

What got better

150,000 active members S106
Brands 6 to 23 S104 S58

Sold or valued at

About $2.5B, about 18.5x (Feb 2026) S58

Wrench Group Atlanta, GA

Started

2016: 4 market leaders (Coolray, Berkeys, Abacus, Parker & Sons), about $150M revenue S115
Sponsor: Investcorp S115

Grew to

16 brands, 24 markets, 5,800 staff (2022) S63
25+ brands, $1.5B+ budgeted revenue S65

How fast

About 10x revenue in about 10 years
Revenue about tripled under Leonard Green since 2019 S65

Money raised

Leonard Green buyout 2019 (terms not disclosed) S62
TSG and Oak Hill minority 2022 S63
$1.3B private credit refinancing (2025) S64

What they changed

Started with 4 market leaders, not 1 (about $150M revenue on day one) S115
Three sponsor rounds: Investcorp, Leonard Green, then TSG and Oak Hill S62 S63
Kept local brands (25+) S65
Leaned on debt: $893M first lien extended 2024, $1.3B refinancing 2025 S64

What got better

Customers 140,000 (2016) to 1.75M a year (2022) S115 S63

Sold or valued at

Value not disclosed; EBITDA under $200M, debt over $1.2B, about 9x S65

TurnPoint Services Louisville, KY

Started

2016: Dauenhauer (about $30M revenue, 160 staff) S66 S116
Sponsor: Trivest Fund V S116

Grew to

17 brands, about 2,000 staff, 13 states (2020) S116 S117
About 60 brands, $1.4B revenue, 34 states (2023) S66 S120

How fast

Revenue nearly 10x in 4 years S116
$30M to $1.4B in about 7 years S66
15 to 20 deals a year by 2023 S120

Money raised

OMERS buyout Nov 2020 (terms not disclosed) S117

What they changed

"Freedom within a framework": owners keep brand and culture S66
Lean HQ: 140 to 145 corporate staff at $1.4B S120
Central 4,200 vehicle fleet; in house demand forecasting (95% accurate a week out) S120

What got better

Staff 160 to about 2,000 in 4 years S116
720 technicians, 290,000 jobs a year (2020) S117

Sold or valued at

Largest multiple of invested capital in Trivest history S118

Southern Home Services Maitland, FL

Started

2016: Advanced Air & Heat (Edgewater, FL) plus Yellow Dot (NC), 70,000 homeowners S67
Sponsor: MSouth Equity Partners S67

Grew to

7 brands, 400 staff (2019) S68
15 brands, 650 staff, 6 states (2021) S69
27+ brands, 1,500+ staff, 12+ states (now) S119

How fast

"Doubled in size annually" in its first 3 years S68

Money raised

MSouth entry 2016 (not disclosed)
Gryphon majority Oct 2021 (not disclosed) S69

What they changed

Uniform accounting, reporting, IT, phone and marketing platforms S68
Hired franchise finance leaders to run the shared platform S68

What got better

Brands 2 to 27+; staff 400 to 1,500+ S68 S119

Sold or valued at

Value not disclosed

USA Hometown Experts Memphis, TN

Started

2022: formed in Memphis; starting companies not disclosed S121
Sponsor: MSouth Fund IV ($940M fund) S121 S122

Grew to

7 states; $30M to $40M EBITDA S60

How fast

About 4 years to $30M to $40M EBITDA S60

Money raised

Equity and debt: not disclosed

What they changed

Not disclosed

What got better

Brand list and operating metrics: not disclosed

Sold or valued at

Sale launched Apr 2026 (Citizens); value not yet known S60

EBITDA by years since start

Real platform, reported EBITDA (sourced)Us, Redwood paceUs, Guild paceUs, Apex paceUs, Optimized (Base deal pace)

Log scale. Our lines: calculated in the v3 workbook. Dots: reported EBITDA S49 S101 S103 S55 S110 S20 S58 S60 S65.
Start = sponsor entry or launch: Apex 2019, Guild 2023 so first deals land in Year 1 (2024), Redwood 2020, Sila 2021, Champions 2021, USA Hometown 2022, Wrench 2016. Sila and Champions had history before their sponsor.
Guild Year 1 is a founder run rate claim; USA Hometown plotted at $35M (midpoint of $30M to $40M); Wrench is an upper bound.

Time to $25M, $50M, $100M EBITDA

Platform	$25M	$50M	$100M	Latest
Guild	Year 1 (claim)	Year 2	not yet	close to $50M, Year 2
Redwood	by Year 5	by Year 5	Year 6 (with Sierra)	over $100M, Year 6
Sila	not disclosed	not disclosed	about 3.5 years (just under)	just under $100M
Champions	not disclosed	not disclosed	by Year 5	about $140M, Year 5
Apex	not disclosed	not disclosed	by Year 7	about $500M, Year 7
USA Hometown	by Year 4	not yet	not yet	$30M to $40M, Year 4
Wrench	not disclosed	not disclosed	by Year 10	under $200M
TurnPoint, Southern	not disclosed	not disclosed	not disclosed	revenue only
Us, Redwood pace (calculated)	Year 3	Year 4	Year 6	$131M, Year 7
Us, Guild pace (calculated)	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	$221M, Year 7
Us, Apex pace (calculated)	Year 3	Year 4	Year 4	$458M, Year 7
Us, Optimized (calculated)	Year 7	beyond Year 7	beyond Year 7	$30.8M, Year 7

Deals per year

Apex: brands up 10 to 30 a year S125; about 60 add ons in 2025 S51
Guild: about 15 a year from year 1 S101 S103
TurnPoint: about 4 a year early (16 in 4 years), then 15 to 20 a year S116 S120
Sila: 3, 6, 8, 11 a year S114
Redwood: about 4 bigger partners a year, plus a 5 company platform in year 6 S111 S110
Southern: about 2 to 5 a year; Champions about 2 a year (Weak trackers)

Our platform at their pace

Same deal count. Same company size. Our margin path. Side by side at the same age.

Our edge on top of their playbook

Being AI native adds EBITDA because the business runs more efficiently: corporate cost of 1.5% of revenue (Base 2.0%) and a 20% seasoned unit margin (Base 15%). ASSUMPTION.
Same exit curve as the market: 8x at $2M to $4M EBITDA, 11x at $7.5M, 14x at $15M, 16x at $35M, 17x at $65M+ (below the 18.5x and 20x prints) S58 S48

Guild pace: what they did, applied to us

Deals: 15 a year from Year 1
Average $10M revenue per deal (Guild: $300M+ / about 30, calculated)
Entry at 5.5x, rising to 6.5x from Year 4 (ASSUMPTION; Guild said mid single digit)

Year 3 EV

$1.17B

$69.0M EBITDA, new equity $145M

Year 5 EV

$2.38B

$140M EBITDA, new equity $260M

Year 7 EV

$3.76B

$221M EBITDA, new equity $374M

Age	Us (calculated)	Guild actual (sourced)
Year 2	$585M EV 31 companies $327M revenue $36.4M EBITDA	over $800M value close to 30 deals $300M+ revenue close to $50M EBITDA S98 S103
Year 3	$1.17B EV 46 companies $500M revenue $69.0M EBITDA	not reached yet
Year 5	$2.38B EV 76 companies $882M revenue $140M EBITDA	not reached yet
Year 7	$3.76B EV 106 companies $1.32B revenue $221M EBITDA	not reached yet

Redwood pace: what they did, applied to us

Deals: 2, 4, 5, 5, 3, 1, 4 (Redwood partner count by age)
Partner size $15M rising to $26M revenue (Redwood average, calculated)
Year 6: one Sierra style platform, 5 companies, $100M revenue

Year 3 EV

$466M

$30.1M EBITDA, new equity $79.2M

Year 5 EV

$1.30B

$76.7M EBITDA, new equity $168M

Year 7 EV

$2.23B

$131M EBITDA, new equity $289M

Age	Us (calculated)	Redwood actual (sourced)
Year 2	$174M EV 7 companies $128M revenue $13.1M EBITDA	not disclosed
Year 3	$466M EV 12 companies $247M revenue $30.1M EBITDA	11 partners $250M revenue EBITDA not disclosed S108
Year 5	$1.30B EV 20 companies $495M revenue $76.7M EBITDA	about $1.1B value 19 partners $500M+ revenue about $65M EBITDA S54 S55
Year 7	$2.23B EV 30 companies $805M revenue $131M EBITDA	not reached yet Year 6: 24 partners, EBITDA over $100M S110

Apex pace: what they did, applied to us

Deals: 4, 10, 15, 25, 27, 22, 25 (Apex brand count by age, Weak tracker)
Average $10M rising to $22M revenue (ASSUMPTION; Apex about $28M to $40M per brand, calculated)
Year 5: one Frontier style platform, 3 companies, $60M revenue (ASSUMPTION)

Year 3 EV

$784M

$47.7M EBITDA, new equity $129M

Year 5 EV

$3.59B

$211M EBITDA, new equity $595M

Year 7 EV

$7.78B

$458M EBITDA, new equity $1.03B

Age	Us (calculated)	Apex actual (sourced)
Year 2	$257M EV 15 companies $179M revenue $18.0M EBITDA	about 15 brands S125 revenue, EBITDA not disclosed
Year 3	$784M EV 30 companies $416M revenue $47.7M EBITDA	about 30 brands S125 not disclosed
Year 5	$3.59B EV 85 companies $1.61B revenue $211M EBITDA	about 85 brands S125 Year 4: $3.4B continuation vehicle S46
Year 7	$7.78B EV 132 companies $2.91B revenue $458M EBITDA	about $10B value 75 prominent brands (107 tracked) $3B+ revenue about $500M EBITDA S47 S48 S49

Capital required vs what they actually raised

Pace	New equity by Year 2	Debt at Year 2	New equity later	What the real platform raised
Guild pace	$96.9M	$79.3M	$145M (Year 3)	$40M equity plus $85M credit facility, about 2 years S101
Redwood pace	$38.9M	$31.8M	$168M (Year 5)	Founding capital not disclosed; Altas majority at about $1.1B (Year 5) S54 S55
Apex pace	$52.5M	$43.0M	$1.03B (Year 7)	$3.4B continuation plus $450M (Year 4); about $2B Apollo minority (Year 7); $3.6B of debt facilities in 2026 (calculated sum) S46 S47 S127

New equity = cumulative acquisition spend less debt (calculated). Debt = lower of 3.2x EBITDA or 45% of spend. Free cash flow not credited, so equity needs are overstated.
Add ons priced at 10% margin at close and a size based purchase multiple (ASSUMPTION; Sierra about 11x on about $20M S110).

Guild pace: year by year (calculated)

Year	Cos	Revenue	EBITDA	Margin	Multiple	EV	Spend to date	Debt	New equity	Equity value
Today	1	$14.1M	$1.32M	9.4%	6.0x	$7.92M	$0	$0	$0	$7.92M
Year 1	16	$165M	$14.1M	8.5%	13.6x	$192M	$88.1M	$39.7M	$48.5M	$152M
Year 2	31	$327M	$36.4M	11.2%	16.0x	$585M	$176M	$79.3M	$96.9M	$505M
Year 3	46	$500M	$69.0M	13.8%	17.0x	$1.17B	$264M	$119M	$145M	$1.05B
Year 4	61	$684M	$103M	15.1%	17.0x	$1.75B	$368M	$166M	$203M	$1.59B
Year 5	76	$882M	$140M	15.8%	17.0x	$2.38B	$472M	$212M	$260M	$2.16B
Year 6	91	$1.09B	$179M	16.4%	17.0x	$3.04B	$576M	$259M	$317M	$2.78B
Year 7	106	$1.32B	$221M	16.7%	17.0x	$3.76B	$680M	$306M	$374M	$3.45B

Redwood pace: year by year (calculated)

Year	Cos	Revenue	EBITDA	Margin	Multiple	EV	Spend to date	Debt	New equity	Equity value
Today	1	$14.1M	$1.32M	9.4%	6.0x	$7.92M	$0	$0	$0	$7.92M
Year 1	3	$45.1M	$3.87M	8.6%	8.0x	$31.0M	$18.6M	$8.36M	$10.2M	$22.6M
Year 2	7	$128M	$13.1M	10.3%	13.3x	$174M	$70.8M	$31.8M	$38.9M	$142M
Year 3	12	$247M	$30.1M	12.2%	15.5x	$466M	$144M	$64.8M	$79.2M	$401M
Year 4	17	$390M	$53.3M	13.7%	16.6x	$885M	$243M	$109M	$134M	$776M
Year 5	20	$495M	$76.7M	15.5%	17.0x	$1.30B	$305M	$137M	$168M	$1.17B
Year 6	26	$655M	$104M	15.9%	17.0x	$1.77B	$442M	$199M	$243M	$1.57B
Year 7	30	$805M	$131M	16.3%	17.0x	$2.23B	$525M	$236M	$289M	$2.00B

Apex pace: year by year (calculated)

Year	Cos	Revenue	EBITDA	Margin	Multiple	EV	Spend to date	Debt	New equity	Equity value
Today	1	$14.1M	$1.32M	9.4%	6.0x	$7.92M	$0	$0	$0	$7.92M
Year 1	5	$55.1M	$4.72M	8.6%	8.6x	$40.7M	$23.5M	$10.6M	$12.9M	$30.1M
Year 2	15	$179M	$18.0M	10.1%	14.3x	$257M	$95.5M	$43.0M	$52.5M	$214M
Year 3	30	$416M	$47.7M	11.5%	16.4x	$784M	$235M	$106M	$129M	$678M
Year 4	55	$946M	$113M	11.9%	17.0x	$1.91B	$614M	$276M	$337M	$1.64B
Year 5	85	$1.61B	$211M	13.1%	17.0x	$3.59B	$1.08B	$487M	$595M	$3.10B
Year 6	107	$2.21B	$328M	14.8%	17.0x	$5.57B	$1.46B	$655M	$800M	$4.92B
Year 7	132	$2.91B	$458M	15.7%	17.0x	$7.78B	$1.88B	$846M	$1.03B	$6.93B

Optimized: year by year (calculated)

Year	Cos	Revenue	EBITDA	Margin	Multiple	EV	Spend to date	Debt	New equity	Equity value
Today	1	$14.1M	$1.32M	9.4%	6.0x	$7.92M	$0	$0	$0	$7.92M
Year 1	4	$21.1M	$1.83M	8.7%	7.6x	$13.9M	$3.13M	$1.41M	$1.72M	$12.5M
Year 2	8	$32.6M	$3.73M	11.5%	8.0x	$29.9M	$8.26M	$3.72M	$4.54M	$26.1M
Year 3	13	$49.8M	$6.79M	13.6%	10.4x	$70.5M	$15.8M	$7.13M	$8.72M	$63.4M
Year 4	18	$73.3M	$10.4M	14.1%	12.1x	$126M	$27.9M	$12.6M	$15.3M	$113M
Year 5	24	$108M	$15.6M	14.4%	14.1x	$219M	$45.8M	$20.6M	$25.2M	$199M
Year 6	30	$152M	$22.5M	14.8%	14.8x	$332M	$67.2M	$30.2M	$37.0M	$302M
Year 7	36	$199M	$30.8M	15.5%	15.6x	$481M	$88.6M	$39.9M	$48.7M	$441M

Guild pace: money, team, payoff

15 deals a year from Year 1. Here is the money, the team and the payoff.

Value

Year 2

$585M

31 companies, $327M revenue, $36.4M EBITDA, equity value $505M

Year 3

$1.17B

46 companies, $500M revenue, $69.0M EBITDA, equity value $1.05B

Year 5

$2.38B

76 companies, $882M revenue, $140M EBITDA, equity value $2.16B

Capital by year (calculated)

Year	Deals	Companies	Spend this year	Spend to date	Debt	New equity to date	Team cost above budget
Year 1	15	16	$88.1M	$88.1M	$39.7M	$48.5M	$424K
Year 2	15	31	$88.1M	$176M	$79.3M	$96.9M	$700K
Year 3	15	46	$88.1M	$264M	$119M	$145M	$507K
Year 5	15	76	$104M	$472M	$212M	$260M	$0

Guild itself: $40M equity plus an $85M credit facility for its first about 30 deals S101.
Our Year 2 total: $96.9M equity plus $79.3M debt (calculated). Seller rollover of 20% to 30% (the Guild structure) would cut cash equity further.

Team to hire (ASSUMPTION, built from what Guild, TurnPoint, Redwood and Apex ran)

Role	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 5
Platform president (operator)	1	1	1	1
CFO	1	1	1	1
Head of M&A	1	1	1	1
Deal sourcing and diligence associates	2	3	3	4
Integration lead and integration managers	3	4	5	6
Controller, accounting, AP and payroll	4	8	12	20
FP&A and data	1	2	3	4
Systems (ServiceTitan, ERP, phones)	2	3	4	6
Technician recruiting	2	4	6	10
Training academy (lead plus trainers)	2	4	6	10
HR and benefits	1	2	3	5
Procurement and fleet	1	2	3	4
Legal and compliance	0	1	1	2
Partner coaches (Redwood style)	0	2	4	8
Marketing and call center lead	1	2	3	5
Total team (calculated)	22	40	56	87
Team cost at $150K loaded per head (ASSUMPTION)	$3.30M	$6.00M	$8.40M	$13.1M
Corporate cost budget in the model (calculated)	$2.88M	$5.30M	$7.89M	$13.6M
Revenue per corporate head (calculated)	$7.50M	$8.17M	$8.92M	$10.1M

Guild: 20 person exec team at about 14 deals; ServiceTitan, Sage, ADP everywhere S101
TurnPoint: 140 to 145 corporate staff at $1.4B revenue S120
Redwood: Partner Support Center with coaches, finance, accounting, marketing, HR; technician universities S108
Apex: 300+ Apex trained leaders; 8,000+ technicians supported S47
Hire first (Month 0 to 3): Head of M&A, CFO, integration lead, controller, 2 deal associates, 2 recruiters (ASSUMPTION).

Seth's piece at Guild pace (calculated)

Exit point	2%	5%	10%	Cash to date
Year 2	$10.1M	$25.3M	$50.5M	$720K
Year 3	$21.1M	$52.7M	$105M	$1.08M
Year 5	$43.3M	$108M	$216M	$1.80M

Seth's piece

Straight equity at 2%, 5%, 10% plus cash, every case, Years 2, 3, 5, 7.

5% at Guild pace, Year 5

$108M

calculated

5% at Redwood pace, Year 5

$58.3M

calculated

5% at Optimized, Year 5

$9.93M

calculated

Case and year	Equity value	2%	5%	10%	Cash to date
Conservative
Year 2 (2028)	$5.62M	$112K	$281K	$562K	$468K
Year 3 (2029)	$10.1M	$202K	$505K	$1.01M	$774K
Year 5 (2031)	$29.3M	$585K	$1.46M	$2.93M	$1.49M
Year 7 (2033)	$66.2M	$1.32M	$3.31M	$6.62M	$2.21M
Base
Year 2 (2028)	$17.6M	$351K	$878K	$1.76M	$540K
Year 3 (2029)	$40.1M	$802K	$2.01M	$4.01M	$900K
Year 5 (2031)	$123M	$2.46M	$6.14M	$12.3M	$1.62M
Year 7 (2033)	$276M	$5.52M	$13.8M	$27.6M	$2.34M
Optimized
Year 2 (2028)	$26.1M	$523K	$1.31M	$2.61M	$540K
Year 3 (2029)	$63.4M	$1.27M	$3.17M	$6.34M	$900K
Year 5 (2031)	$199M	$3.97M	$9.93M	$19.9M	$1.62M
Year 7 (2033)	$441M	$8.81M	$22.0M	$44.1M	$2.34M
Redwood pace
Year 2 (2028)	$142M	$2.85M	$7.12M	$14.2M	$504K
Year 3 (2029)	$401M	$8.02M	$20.1M	$40.1M	$864K
Year 5 (2031)	$1.17B	$23.3M	$58.3M	$117M	$1.58M
Year 7 (2033)	$2.00B	$40.0M	$99.9M	$200M	$2.30M
Guild pace
Year 2 (2028)	$505M	$10.1M	$25.3M	$50.5M	$720K
Year 3 (2029)	$1.05B	$21.1M	$52.7M	$105M	$1.08M
Year 5 (2031)	$2.16B	$43.3M	$108M	$216M	$1.80M
Year 7 (2033)	$3.45B	$69.0M	$172M	$345M	$2.52M
Apex pace
Year 2 (2028)	$214M	$4.29M	$10.7M	$21.4M	$612K
Year 3 (2029)	$678M	$13.6M	$33.9M	$67.8M	$972K
Year 5 (2031)	$3.10B	$62.0M	$155M	$310M	$1.69M
Year 7 (2033)	$6.93B	$139M	$347M	$693M	$2.41M

Equity value = EV less debt (calculated); pre tax, before dilution from seller rollover, management pools or recaps.
Cash: $15K a month plus $1.5K per company beyond American Air, capped at $30K a month (reached at 11 companies); rate set by year end company count (ASSUMPTION). Cash to date runs from 2027.
Stake sizes are illustrations, not a recommendation.

Risk strip

Air Pros: what not to copy S70 S123

Started 2017 in Florida; Peak Rock 2021 with 10 locations, 250 staff
About 15 month buying streak; $100M+ paid to sellers up front
Each unit kept its own operating model: "a lack of controls" (restructuring officer)
$250M+ debt; Chapter 11 in Mar 2025; seller rollover went to zero

How we avoid it

One back office from day one (Guild rule: ServiceTitan, Sage, ADP)
Debt capped at 3.2x EBITDA in every case (Wrench ran about 9x S65)
Integration team hired before deal 1

Sources

Labels: Company (press release by buyer or seller), Press reported (unnamed sources), Press (trade), Weak (trackers, secondary summaries, podcasts). Calculated figures come from the v3 workbook. Accessed Oct 8, 2026.

Code	Source	Date	Label	URL
S20	Homepros: Goldman to acquire Sila (about $1.7B, about 17x)	Nov 2024	Press reported	link
S45	Alpine launches Apex Service Partners	Jul 2019	Company	link
S46	Alpine closes $3.4B single asset continuation transaction (Apex)	Oct 25, 2023	Company	link
S47	Apollo minority investment in Apex (75 brands, 46 states, $3B+ revenue)	May 28, 2026	Company	link
S48	Reuters via MarketScreener: Apex minority stake at $10B valuation	2026	Press reported	link
S49	MDM: Apex nets $2B investment from Apollo (about $500M EBITDA)	May 28, 2026	Press reported	link
S51	Hardwire News: Apex about 60 add ons in 2025	May 10, 2026	Weak	link
S52	Reuters: Morgan Stanley to sell Sila to Goldman (about $1.5B)	Nov 11, 2024	Press reported	link
S54	Altas investment in Redwood ($500M+ revenue, 19 partners)	May 8, 2025	Company	link
S55	Homepros: Redwood $1.1B deal (about $65M EBITDA, about 17x)	May 8, 2025	Press reported	link
S56	Redwood acquires Sierra Platform ($100M+ revenue, 19,000 memberships)	May 4, 2026	Company	link
S58	Homepros: Champions $2.5B Blackstone deal (about 18.5x on about $140M)	Feb 17, 2026	Press reported	link
S60	Homepros: USA Hometown exploring sale ($30M to $40M EBITDA)	May 7, 2026	Press reported	link
S62	Investcorp sale of Wrench to Leonard Green	Apr 8, 2019	Company	link
S63	TSG and Oak Hill minority in Wrench (16 brands, 1.75M customers)	Nov 9, 2022	Company	link
S64	Private Equity Wire: Wrench $1.3B private credit	Sept 16, 2025	Press reported	link
S65	LegalClarity: Who owns Wrench (summarizing S&P)	Jun 16, 2026	Weak	link
S66	Construction In Focus: TurnPoint ($30M to $1.4B, 57 deals)	Mar 2023	Company claim in trade press	link
S67	MSouth acquires Southern Air & Heat (2 brands, 70,000 homeowners)	May 16, 2016	Company	link
S68	Southern HVAC CEO release (7 brands, doubled annually)	Mar 18, 2019	Company	link
S69	Gryphon majority investment in Southern (15 brands, 650 staff)	Oct 4, 2021	Company	link
S70	Homepros: Air Pros founder on the collapse	Sept 25, 2025	Trade press interview	link
S98	Oak Hill partners with Guild Garage Group; Reuters $800M+ deal	Mar to Apr 2026	Company + Press reported	link
S101	Acquiring Minds: Guild founder interview (capital, deal terms, pace)	Dec 9, 2024	Company (founder claim)	link
S103	Private Equity Wire: Oak Hill to acquire Guild ($300M+ revenue, about $50M EBITDA)	Mar 9, 2026	Press reported	link
S104	Odyssey acquires Service Champions (850 technicians, 6 trade names)	Jan 6, 2021	Company	link
S105	Odyssey: Champions Group Holdings rebrand (19 brands, 2,400 staff)	Aug 29, 2023	Company	link
S106	Blackstone to acquire Champions Group (150,000 members)	Feb 17, 2026	Company	link
S107	Union Main Group: Redwood entry Jan 2020	n/a	Company	link
S108	ACHR News: Redwood 11 partners, $250M, technician universities	Aug 21, 2023	Press (trade)	link
S109	To The Point podcast: Redwood 16 partners, $400M+	Nov 19, 2024	Weak	link
S110	Homepros: Redwood buys Sierra for about $220M; total EBITDA over $100M	May 2026	Press reported	link
S111	Echelon Reports: Redwood platform file (brands by year)	Jul 29, 2026	Weak	link
S112	Morgan Stanley: MSCP agrees to sell Sila (30+ brands)	Nov 2024	Company	link
S114	PrivSource: Sila deals by year	2026	Weak	link
S115	Investcorp partners with Wrench (about $150M revenue, 4 companies)	Mar 3, 2016	Company	link
S116	Trivest: sale of TurnPoint (16 add ons, revenue nearly 10x)	Nov 17, 2020	Company	link
S117	OMERS acquires TurnPoint (17 brands, 720 technicians)	Nov 17, 2020	Company	link
S118	Trivest: TurnPoint, largest multiple of invested capital in Trivest history	2021	Company	link
S119	Southern Home Services acquisitions page (27+ brands, 12+ states)	2026	Company	link
S120	Automotive Fleet: TurnPoint 60 brands, 15 to 20 deals a year, 140 to 145 HQ staff	Sept 18, 2023	Press (trade)	link
S121	MSouth: USA Hometown Experts, formed 2022, Fund IV	n/a	Company	link
S122	MSouth Fund IV closes at $940M	Oct 5, 2018	Company	link
S123	Air Pros receives Peak Rock financing (10 locations, 250 staff)	Sept 8, 2021	Company	link
S125	Craft dossier: Apex brands by year	2026	Weak	link
S126	Echelon Reports: Apex platform file (Frontier, 3 brands, 2024)	2026	Weak	link
S127	S&P Global Ratings: Apex proposed $1B notes (headline and index summary only)	Oct 2026	Weak	link